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Summer 2022 Vol. 21 No. 2

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Foreword. In response to the shifting landscape of international politics, the most current TPQ issue focuses on "NATO's Changing Priorities." We present thirteen insightful essays for our Summer 2022 edition from prominent figures in academia, journalism, and nongovernmental organizations. Ten of these articles address the changing priorities of NATO in more general terms, while three others take this phenomenon in light of the effects of the most recent Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Protecting the Future: NATO’s Madrid Summit and Strategic Concept. “NATO has undertaken the largest reinforcement of its deterrence and defense since the end of the Cold War. In the wake of the Russian Federation’s war of aggression in Ukraine, the Alliance has brought 40,000 multi-national troops under direct NATO command, in addition to the 100,000 U.S. troops deployed in Europe,” writes Carmen Romero.

A Revitalized NATO and its “New Strategic Concept” Amid Global and Regional Changes. “The new Concept is reflective of a completely different threat environment, as now NATO is facing an era of strategic competition. For the first time, it recognizes that the Euro-Atlantic area is “not at peace”,” writes E. Fuat Keyman.

NATO’s Changing Priorities. “After the Cold War was over, NATO’s Strategic Concept underwent three changes in tandem with Europe’s changing strategic environment. The first one, adopted on 7 November 1991, took into account the waning of the Soviet threat, with the Soviet troops beginning to withdraw from Eastern Europe and the former USSR satellite states gaining their sovereignty,” writes Ahmet O. Evin.

Geopolitical Consequences of the War in Ukraine. “The invasion and its aftermaths have brought China and Russia closer together as trading partners. They share an anti U.S. stance and have also become more closely allied with shared military maneuvers along their shared boundaries in Central Asia and the Far East,” writes John Rennie Short.

Future Uncertain: NATO in a Post-Quantum, Post-AI World. “Developments in AI, quantum, hypersonic, and directed energy weapons technologies will inevitably shift the offensive-defensive balance in ways that will aggravate the security dilemma. The inevitable shift to an offensive strategy is problematic for a self-declared defensive alliance, especially since NATO derived and sustained its political legitimacy from that mission,” writes James Sperling.

Russia’s Assault on Ukraine: Fallout from the War. “The most immediate impact has been on the cost of food. In some countries like Lebanon, Egypt, and Pakistan, which are heavily dependent on imports, food prices have risen more than 30 percent since the beginning of the year,” write Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler.

Geopolitics, Geography and the Ukrainian – Russian War. “Russian decisions of balancing and band wagoning depend on Russian perceptions of NATO, China’s aggressive intentions, and the distribution of power in the strategic triangle. There is no doubt that as Sweden and Finland will become NATO allies, NATO will be stronger. Hence, Russians will be more inclined to search for Chinese support to balance NATO,” writes Serdar Ş. Güner.

The Historical Roots of NATO Enlargement in the Mediterranean. “In 1960, NATO deployed PGM-19 Jupiter strategic missiles to Apulia and, later, to the province of Izmir, directly threatening the Soviet Union with nuclear warheads. The choice had many implications, but one that geographically seemed to express the value of Italian and Turkish territory as NATO's southern flank to the interior of the continent, not to the sea,” writes Matteo Gerlini.

The Future of Women, Peace, and Security at NATO. “A more recent and serious challenge concerning NATO’s changing priorities and the place of WPS is the gendered silences surrounding NATO’s response to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is surprising given this is a war fought not just in terms of territory but also represents a fundamental attack on democracy and NATO values including individual liberty, human rights, and the rule of law,” write Dianna Morais, Samantha Turner and Katharine A. M. Wright.

A Compass and a Concept: A Guide to the EU and NATO Strategic Outlooks. “NATO’s new Strategic Concept adopted at the Madrid Summit reflects that vision, but it is naturally shaped by current events as is the Compass: Provides a sharp assessment of the current security challenges facing Allies considering Russia’s renewed aggression and threat to Euro-Atlantic security and gives a general orientation with regard to NATO’s political and military domains,” write Ricardo Borges de Castro and Rita Barbosa Lobo.

NATO After Madrid: Preparing for an Age of Confrontation and Disruption. “Given the stakes, allies must now infuse the Strategic Concept’s generalities with specific meaning. They should make it a strategic objective to do everything possible, short of extending an Article 5 guarantee, to help Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova defend themselves and resist Russian destabilization,” writes Daniel S. Hamilton.

NATO: The Importance of Activism in the Mediterranean Scenario. “Italy was the main supporter of an opening of credit towards Russia, placing faith in a transition towards a Western-style model. In the “End of History” climate of the late 1990s, Italy had tried to bring Russia closer to the Western world,” writes Lorenzo Somigli.

Change and Continuity in NATO’s Nuclear Priorities. “Anti-nuclear movements may continue to gain strength among the general population and elected leaders of hosting states, posing a challenge for NATO nuclear sharing,” writes Spenser A. Warren.



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