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A Year Since the Return of History:

A New Cold War?

Winter 2022/23 Vol. 21 No. 4

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Now Read It For Only $ 3,49* From Google Play Books!



Foreword. "The last one year proved itself to be a very tough year, and it brought many new challenges for the international relations. Among these new challenges, the most striking one is probably the Russia’s unleashing a war of aggression on Ukraine. As Russia's invasion stepped up on 24 February 2022, many Western experts and policymakers predicted that the Ukrainian armed forces wouldn't be able to defend Kyiv, and that it would fall to the invaders before the month ended. Nonetheless, the government and people of Ukraine are still fighting, and you can see evidence of this everywhere you walk in Kyiv thanks to the flag of free Ukraine flying from rooftops..." writes Aybars Arda Kılıçer.

East vs. West: A New Cold War?. “Anticipations of a positive peace order after the end of the Cold War in 1989 soon led to disappointment. The issues in dispute then are the ones that later generated alienation, followed by conflict and the subsequent hot conflict in 2022. A positive peace order would have overcome the logic of conflict, with all sides ready to change within the framework of creating an inclusive and mutually equitable peace order in Europe. Instead, the negative peace of the cold war was perpetuated in new forms and conditions,” writes Richard Sakwa.

Imperial or Colonial: The War is Fought Over the Soviet Past and a Broken Partnership. “Protesting was the primary political language that Ukrainians spoke; still, the political parties were mostly top-down hierarchies, and most organizations were professionally run rather than based on initiatives from the grassroots. Even so, there was not really a conflict over Russian and Ukrainian identity, or over language. The peaceful coexistence between both factions was however already in the past when I departed for Sweden the day before the rounds fell that killed over a hundred,” writes Li Bennich-Björkman.

The West Versus The Rest: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Crisis of the “Post-Western” Order. “Although the invasion of Ukraine was part of a process that started in 2007 or 2008, few people in early 2022 expected the extent of the military invasion that Putin had in mind regarding a full-scale war on Ukraine. The conventional wisdom was that Russia would continue to co-operate with China to strengthen the autocracy coalition in its neighborhood and around the world and use a variety of tactics in this process, but not extending much beyond limited military engagements.Although the invasion of Ukraine was part of a process that started in 2007 or 2008, few people in early 2022 expected the extent of the military invasion that Putin had in mind regarding a full-scale war on Ukraine. The conventional wisdom was that Russia would continue to co-operate with China to strengthen the autocracy coalition in its neighborhood and around the world and use a variety of tactics in this process, but not extending much beyond limited military engagements,” writes Ziya Öniş.

Russia, Ukraine, and Lasting Peace in Europe. “Instead of embracing an ineffective strategy that prolongs the conflict indefinitely, Western governments should consider a peace strategy that focuses on the interests of the Ukrainian people—all the Ukrainian people,” writes Nicolai N. Petro.

East-West Relations: A New Cold War?. “Initially, the Alliance adopted the doctrine of massive retaliation whereby Soviet encroachments, irrespective of the level they were committed, would be countered by a nuclear response. In a highly contentious security environment, however, as the Soviets eventually developed means of delivering nuclear weapons with the capability of directly reaching the American continent, the U.S. felt the need to modify this defense doctrine to avoid becoming a direct nuclear target in case hostilities commenced,” writes İlter Turan.

Small States and the War in Ukraine. “Strong institutions, norms of self-determination, and the declining returns on conquest in a globalized world created the most beneficial international environment since the birth of the modern state system,” writes Anders Wivel.

Lessons From the Ukrainian Refugee Crisis. “It is worth recalling that efforts to create an international system for managing refugee flows date back to the turmoil of the Russian Revolution and the First World War. At first, only Russians escaping the Soviet Communist regime were eligible for refugee status, even though it was estimated that as many as 9.5 million Europeans were displaced after the war,” writes Itty Abraham.

U.S. Foreign Policy and the War in Ukraine. “In the 1990s, the United States became enamored of aerial policing in places like the Balkans and the Middle East as the preferred instrument to influence objectionable politics on the ground. After 9/11, the country’s land forces got handed the job of directly refereeing local politics on the basis to disastrous effect, accumulating staggering monetary and human costs in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the broader Middle East,” writes James A. Russell.

The Role of Democracy Discourse in the Emerging "New Cold War". “According to Chinese leaders, the U.S. democracy is both unique to that country and far from perfect. It is therefore unacceptable for the U.S. to impose its model on other countries through wars or other means,” write Emre Demir and Sırma Altun.

West vs. Non-West: A New Cold War?. “The system of U.S. vassal and client states remains pliant at the elite political level for now, even though their interests and security are being eroded by U.S. demands to support Ukraine in the war. Attempts to force neutral or non-aligned states from the Non-Western world, such as India and Türkiye, have been largely unsuccessful owing to the pragmatic pursuit of their interests and security,” writes Greg Simons.

The Impact of the Ukrainian-Russian War on Rwanda. “Beyond speaking their frustrations about the negative impacts of the distant war on their everyday lives, most Rwandans acknowledge the lack of options that they are their country can do. Nothing within Rwandan foreign or economic policy can adequately curb the adverse effects on them and much of the world,” writes Jonathan Beloff.

Will Türkiye Find Herself a Place in the New World Order?. “The Ukrainian crisis has been treated as a symptom of the new world order. However, it was not a starting point that started a new period but a result of the new “multipolar world.” The roots of this system can be traced back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which coincided with the transformation of Communist China. While the end of history was declared in the Western hemisphere during the liberal moment in the 1990s, several regional powers emerged slowly thanks to the global economic atmosphere. Departing from the grandeur of their past, once “humiliated” Russia, Türkiye, Iran, China, India, and many others, started to contest the status quo and the international rules “imposed” on them by the 2000s,” writes Oğul Tuna.

From East to North: New Frontiers for the EU-NATO Arctic Defense. “Greenland has been the primary target of China's activity thus far; in 2018, China began discussions with Greenland to build one of the world's largest uranium and rare earth mines, which would be added to the zinc already extracted and would be part of a complex of five projects dealing largely with mining of iron ore, ore, rare earth metals, uranium, and oil,” writes Luca Cinciripini.

Concerns for Food Security in the Mediterranean and Türkiye. “Despite being vulnerable to a political crisis and moving in the opposite direction of sustainable development goals, food security is understudied as a pressing issue due to “abundant” assumed food access. Food insecurity was introduced to legal frameworks in the 1970s, yet acute food insecurity associated with climate change by reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases urged governments to take climate change seriously in the last decades,” writes Gün Ünal.

Exploring the Russian Perspective on the War in Ukraine: Demography's Power and Ukraine's Uniqueness. “It is vital to remember that a person's native language was one of the most decisive factors in determining his or her ethnicity or group membership in the eyes of the Soviet administration. Evidently, the Kremlin is not afraid to adopt a similar posture in the manner that it forms a more “intervening approach” for the regions with a higher Russian population residing there,” writes Aybars Arda Kılıçer.

A "Civil Association" Between the European Union and Russia. “The rhetoric coming back and forth between the two sides doesn't function as a political forum to present each other, come to know each other's positions, and arrive at mutually beneficial solutions, but as a body of technics to portray one's actions as legitimate as much as possible and the other's as illegitimate; constant argumentation back and forth without any substantial understanding,” writes Enes Özcan.

What Effects Does the Ukrainian Conflict Have on Ties Between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia?. “9/11 was the terrorist act that had a powerful impact on world affairs, especially the U.S.-Middle East relations as Ukraine War. After this unprecedented terrorist attack, Saudi Arabia came under pressure by both the U.S. public opinion and the U.S. official institutions,” writes Shovkat Jabarova.

Nuclear Non-Threat in the Context of Russian Invasion of Ukraine. “When considering the existing situation in international politics, Nuclear Non-Proliferation is the only way to keep the status quo and prevent a possible SNW usage. In the face of annihilation, desperate smaller states may use SNW. The existing Nuclear Strategy is to avoid a possible nuclear conflict and keep the destruction rate at a minimum in case of usage,” writes Ali Demircioğlu.



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